Q4 2025 Electronic component lead time report highlights

Sourceability’s Q4 2025 Lead Time Report reveals a market largely out of recovery and poised for positive movement blemished by challenges in a few select segments.

This largely results from AI-driven wafer allocation toward HBM continuing to pull capacity away from general-purpose DRAM, a trend accelerating shortages across numerous DRAM sectors.

Q4 also adds cumulative pressure from geopolitical tensions, specifically involving Nexperia, which has caused a severe upset in the discrete market. The most severe tightening affects DRAM, where lead times have doubled, and suppliers are shifting to allocation-based fulfillment.

Most other categories remain relatively stable, but downstream buyers should still prepare for periodic spot volatility.  

Q4 2025 Lead Time and Price Takeaways

The final quarter of 2025 brought a snapshot full of sharp contrasts across the component landscape. While many categories remained steady, memory and discrete entered an accelerated tightening phase. DRAM lead times now exceed 40 weeks in some cases, with major suppliers shifting to allocation models amid collapsing inventory buffers. Meanwhile, DDR4’s end-of-life transition has now arrived and wafer prioritization toward HBM continues to reduce general-purpose memory availability.

Beyond memory, SSDs and eMMC storage are seeing longer lead times tied to AI infrastructure growth. Passives are showing early signs of cost pressure after remaining largely stable through Q3 as manufacturers prepare a shift in pricing posture.  

As 2026 approaches, buyers are facing a complex market where most lead time inflation is driven by structural shifts in production rather than cyclical buying patterns.  

In the coming quarter, memory deserves its own callout given that it projects to be a clear outlier both in price and lead time increases. DDR5 recently saw its spot price skyrocket 307% compared to September, and DRAM is now the highest-risk category across the entire electronics component ecosystem.  

• Lead times for DDR4 and DDR5 are expanding to highs of 26 to 40 or more weeks.  
• Micron is seeing the highest lag with 39+ week lead times along with price increases and tightening supply of DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5.  
• Samsung DDR4 lead times are trending up, reaching 16 to 20 weeks with higher pricing.
• Kingston’s DRAM module supply is tight as lead times stretch between two and eight weeks with those figures trending upward across its memory product lineup.  
• DDR4 EOL is also accelerating, with phase outs confirmed by Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix.

Across the industry, inventory buffers continue to fall, reaching lows of under eight weeks compared to 31 weeks a frame ago. This has led to the emergence of widespread allocation-only policies from major suppliers, especially for high-demand modules. With AI server growth forecasted to grow 65% to 80% year-over-year through 2026, supply resilience will remain challenged well into next year.  

Meanwhile, that demand for HBM wafers removes allocation capacity from commodity DRAM, making it harder and more costly to source these components.  

• Storage: SSD and eMMC lead times are rising thanks to AI expansion and data center deployments. Both Micron and Kingston are acutely affected, but ongoing pressure on storage availability and pricing are expected to persist alongside build outs.  ‍
• Passives: After enjoying a period of stability, passives supply is tightening. Panasonic sounded the warning bell by announcing its POSCAP pricing will increase starting February 1, 2026, as a result of production equipment cost hikes.  ‍
• Discrete: The discrete segment is feeling the effects of geopolitical turbulence, driving price increases across many small signal/MOSFET categories at Nexperia, Diodes, Onsemi, and others. The ongoing dispute over Nexperia’s ownership between China and the Netherlands has complicated industry dynamics. Automotive demand is compounding the issues, straining logistics lanes and allowing alternative brands to gain traction as buyers move to de-risk from Nexperia’s uncertain future.  

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

Compared to Q3’s speculative landscape, Q4 presents a clearer, but no less complicated picture. Rather than widespread shortages, this quarter is defined by category-specific disruption and recalibration at a high level. Buyers will need to think carefully about how they’ll adapt to the new dynamics shaping 2026.  

One key evolution is the maturity of allocation environments. Early signs of supply shortages in Q3 have crystallized into formal allocation policies and extended lead times. Lead times for DDR4 and DDR5 now exceed 30 to 40 weeks even as HBM demand consumes a growing share of wafer starts.  

The clearest shift is in how supply and demand are being balanced. DRAM suppliers have embraced multi-quarter price increases as high as 40% in the most constrained categories. Analysts project this trend will continue through mid-2026 and the upcoming phase out of DDR4 next year will further strain the market.  

Other categories are starting to echo this shift. Pricing moves in passives, particularly Panasonic’s upcoming POSCAP hike, point to upstream cost pressure that wasn’t as evident in Q3. The discrete market is also under more stress thanks to Nexperia’s global split dragging supply uncertainty into the new year. The division shows no signs of a complete resolution, leaving supply to Nexperia China and production for end-users uncertain.  

At the same time, tariff uncertainty persists. While the Trump administration’s plan to implement 100% tariffs on imported semiconductors has been delayed, related sourcing costs are already moving upward due to route changes and contingency planning.  

As the market heads into 2026, buyers face a market in structural imbalance despite being largely favorable for positive momentum. Memory constraints, tariff risk, and geopolitical friction are changing how the electronic components supply chain functions heading into the new year. While most categories remain stable, the margin for error is shrinking.  

Forward planning, supplier diversification, and early engagement will be critical in the quarters ahead as procurement teams navigate a market that’s changing faster than traditional cycles can catch up.