Over the past year, the global memory market has undergone a significant structural transformation thanks to the strength of AI infrastructure demand. Recently, SK Hynix reported unprecedented third-quarter 2026 financial results, with its leadership expecting memory demand to exceed supply through 2030. Unsurprisingly, these developments suggest that buyers outside long-term agreements will need to look beyond traditional channels for available memory supply.

In the wake of these changes, the negotiating power between memory manufacturers and their customers continues to shift. Apple, historically one of the industry’s most influential NAND buyers, is reportedly reconsidering its aggressive procurement strategies as AI hyperscalers win LTAs. Memory continues to consume a growing share of smartphone manufacturing costs, and even the world’s most valuable device maker can no longer count on its purchasing volume to secure better terms.  

SK Hynix sees memory shortage continuing through 2030

Third quarter results from SK Hynix showed how far leverage in the memory market has swung in favor of suppliers. The company reported revenue of KRW 104.6 trillion and operating profit of KRW 83.3 trillion, up 32% and 28% respectively from the second quarter. It also marks the first time SK Hynix’s quarterly sales have topped KRW 100 trillion.  

The gains were largely driven by DRAM, particularly server DDR5, as well as HBM4 shipments ramping up in earnest. Sales of 321-layer TLC enterprise SSDs also saw sales grow alongside broader data center demand.  

During its report, SK Hynix also noted that it forecasts memory demand to continue exceeding supply through 2030. The South Korean chipmaker argues that AI investment is now spreading beyond the few hyperscalers that drove the first wave to include general enterprises and national AI programs.  

In a longer outlook, SK Hynix expects physical AI embedded in robotics and autonomous driving platforms to become the new primary demand driver. With leading-edge DRAM and NAND facilities needing years to reach volume production, even capacity planned to come online in 2027 will offer little relief in the near term.  

Samsung echoed the memory shortfall sentiment, projecting tight conditions through 2028 with expectations that capital spending will rise significantly in the year to come. However, it believes much of that investment will be earmarked for building new space and meeting higher construction costs, while the time horizon to production means little in the way of added bit supply by 2028.  

Across the industry, long-term agreements (LTAs) are now key dictators of who gets to buy products from a limited pool of supply. SK Hynix has signed LTAs with 14 major customers, including global cloud service providers, covering more than half of its total production capacity. The firm also indicated that its DRAM and HBM capacity is effectively booked through 2029 between its LTAs and ongoing customer contracts under discussion.  

Unsurprisingly, SK Hynix’s production priorities seem to be shifting toward the greatest demand. The chipmaker is accelerating HBM4 production at its M15X facility, targeting full capacity by year-end. It expects the technology will overtake HBM3E in both shipments and revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026 and will “establish itself as a mainstream product.”  

For procurement teams working outside of existing LTAs, buying memory through traditional channels will likely remain tight for years. Available supply still exists, though, in hyperscaler excess, distributor inventory, and secondary channels. Sourceability’s global sourcing network and franchise partnerships help customers find that stock and leverage it to foster a more dependable memory supply chain.  

Apple’s changing NAND strategy signals a shift in pricing power

For most of the last two decades, Apple set the terms at the NAND negotiating table. Its astronomical purchasing volume was large enough that flash makers accepted conditions few other customers could dream of. With AI buyers flexing their massive expansion budgets, that leverage is starting to shake, leaving the industry in an interesting position.  

According to reporting summarized by TrendForce, Apple’s playbook has historically depended on market cycles working in its favor. When NAND prices fell, the company would sometimes refuse delivery of chips it had already ordered, including parts customized for Apple. Suppliers were left with inventory they couldn’t easily resell, meaning disputes often ended with further discounts.

Apple also reportedly required most-favored-customer status, guaranteeing that no other buyer paid less than it did for memory. This wasn’t an empty threat, as audits of suppliers’ financial records and factory-level production data would reveal. More than a decade ago, one audit found that Micron had sold flash to another customer at a lower price, ending in an arbitration settlement worth tens of millions of dollars.  

Today, booming AI infrastructure demand has removed the pressure many suppliers faced during past talks with Apple. This year alone, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have signed LTAs with Kioxia at higher prices. Those contracts give the manufacturer insulation against a future downturn and, with it, more confidence when negotiating with a buyer like Apple.

Apple has reportedly adjusted as well and appears to be moving toward its own long-term NAND agreements. Ironically, Kioxia is widely expected to be the likely partner, though Apple is still considering agreements with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron for LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 products. For a company that long profited from spot-market flexibility, committing to multi-year deals under anything but the best terms is a meaningful concession.  

TrendForce estimates that memory accounted for about 34% of the 256GB iPhone Pro’s bill of materials in 3Q26, increasing roughly 10% from the same quarter in 2025. With memory prices projected to keep rising in 2027, that share could easily surpass 40% in the first half of the new year.  

Though memory is a key factor, rising costs from components to manufacturing and logistics also add pressure. As such, TrendForce projects the iPhone 18 Pro’s total BOM could rise 38% year-over-year.  

Though Apple’s status as one of the largest memory buyers for more than a decade often puts it in the spotlight, the implications of today’s market reach well beyond Cupertino. As AI infrastructure customers commit to LTAs at higher prices, other buyers lose the leverage to negotiate lower prices they historically enjoyed in periods of oversupply. Given projections for tight memory supply potentially through 2030 and new capacity arriving too slowly to change the picture, LTAs will increasingly decide who gets access to essential output.  

For OEMs and EMS providers, procurement strategies built around waiting for prices to fall or relying on a single manufacturer may become more difficult to sustain in the age of AI-influenced demand. Those buyers need diversified sourcing plans and pre-qualified alternates in place to keep lines running when traditional channels dry up.